Bitcoin's bull cycle at risk if it drops below $71K, warns analyst Cowen
**Bitcoin Bull Cycle at Risk? Analyst Warns of Key Price Levels**
A prominent Key Opinion Leader and YouTuber recently shared insights on Bitcoin’s potential bull cycle trajectory, suggesting that the rally could come to an end if the asset dips below a critical price threshold.
## **Bitcoin’s Critical Support Level: $71,000**
In his latest video uploaded on March 14, analyst Benjamin Cowen cautioned that Bitcoin slipping below the $71,000 mark could signal the end of its current bull run. He emphasized that if Bitcoin were to drop into the low $60,000s, it might indicate a bearish shift.
Cowen explained:
*"If there's a wick in the low $60,000s, then there's a good chance the cycle is over. If it stays above the 2024 high, then the party could easily go on."*
He compared the current market conditions to Bitcoin’s 2017 cycle, where the asset tested the previous year’s high before continuing its upward momentum. According to Cowen, if Bitcoin maintains support between **$70,000 and $73,000**, the bull cycle structure will likely remain intact.
## **Will Risk Assets Rebound Soon?**
Cowen also analyzed macroeconomic influences on Bitcoin and risk assets, particularly leading up to **March options expiration (OPEX)**. He expressed concern that **macroeconomic trends could create a bearish environment for Bitcoin** in the near term.
While recent data shows inflation declining to **2.81%**, Cowen remains wary of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate adjustments. He warned that the **Fed’s rate-slashing strategy—initiated last September—could trigger an inflationary rebound similar to the 1970s**, keeping investors on edge.
Cowen stated:
*"There likely will not be any type of durable bounce by risk assets until at least March OPEX… It could take as long as early to mid-April if the markets are going to simply wait for more macro data to come in, meaning labor market data and inflation data."*
## **Market Uncertainty: Inflation, Fed Policy, and Tariffs**
In addition to inflation and Fed policies, Cowen highlighted **geopolitical and economic uncertainty surrounding tariffs**, particularly those linked to **former President Trump’s trade policies**. He noted that while some investors view tariffs as **bullish** due to potential domestic industry benefits, others believe they could introduce volatility and risk to global markets.
Despite these concerns, Cowen reinforced that **Bitcoin holding above $70,000 remains a critical factor**. If the price plunges into the low $60,000s, **it could signal a broader market shift, potentially leading to a bearish second half of 2025**.
---
Would you like any further refinements or additions to this version? 🚀