Crypto Price Prediction 2025: Coinbase Predicts Crypto Rebound by Mid-2025 After Tariff Turmoil
**Crypto Market Q2 2025: Volatility Reigns, but a Turnaround May Be Ahead**
The second quarter of 2025 kicked off with a jolt to the global financial markets, triggered by President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariff measures. These tariffs, which mark the end of a temporary 90-day trade pause with China, have rekindled fears of an escalated trade war. The result? Investor sentiment took a hit, and risk assets—particularly cryptocurrencies—have faced sharp selloffs.
Ironically, despite high hopes that a crypto-friendly presidency might support digital assets, the market has shown little optimism so far. During Q1 2025, Ethereum (ETH) tumbled nearly 40%, while Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped to $78,000 before staging a modest recovery.
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**Short-Term Strain, but Brighter Days on the Horizon**
According to **Coinbase’s April Monthly Outlook**, the current turbulence is expected to persist into mid-May. The combination of aggressive trade policies, monetary tightening, and global macro uncertainty is likely to keep pressure on digital asset prices in the near term.
Cryptocurrencies were among the first casualties, with Bitcoin and the broader **COIN50 Index** dipping below their critical 200-day moving averages—a technical signal that often suggests the start of a bearish phase. Sentiment indicators are flashing red as well: the **Crypto Fear & Greed Index** has sunk into "Extreme Fear," reflecting widespread anxiety among investors.
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**Relief Rally Possible by Late Q2**
Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, Coinbase sees potential for a rebound as early as **May or June**. Historically, markets have shown resilience following similar downturns. For example, in 2020, Bitcoin plummeted in March amid pandemic panic, but regained stability by May—eventually launching into a historic bull run.
The same pattern could repeat in 2025. If macro conditions stabilize and investor confidence returns, the current correction may be viewed in hindsight as a golden buying opportunity.
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**Analyst Outlook: Bitcoin Still Poised for Growth**
Prominent crypto analyst **Matt Hougan** shares Coinbase's cautious optimism. He acknowledges that Q1’s sharp downturn came during a period that traditionally sees strong crypto performance. But several macro tailwinds could support a turnaround:
- **Expanding global money supply**
- **Easing monetary policies from central banks**
- **Progress in U.S. crypto regulation**
Hougan also highlights how geopolitical tensions and Trump's trade policies are prompting investors to seek alternative stores of value. He remains bullish on Bitcoin, maintaining his prediction that **BTC could reach $200,000 by year-end**.
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**Q3 2025: The Real Breakout?**
If Q2 sets the stage for recovery, Q3 could mark the beginning of a significant uptrend. Coinbase anticipates robust growth in the **second half of 2025**, fueled by several key catalysts.
Most notably, Bitcoin’s **recent halving**—an event that historically precedes major price rallies—could act as a powerful tailwind. In previous cycles, halvings were followed by strong upward momentum within six to twelve months.
Institutional interest is also gaining momentum. The approval and launch of **Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S.** have brought credibility and long-term investment capital into the space. According to **ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report**, this year could be a defining one for the crypto market, driven by increased adoption and rapid technological innovation.
Coinbase further notes that a more supportive **regulatory environment** in the U.S. is likely to emerge in the coming months. Clearer rules and guidelines would reduce uncertainty and pave the way for broader institutional and retail participation.
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**Conclusion**
While the early part of Q2 may continue to test investor patience, signs point to a potential recovery by late spring or early summer. If macro conditions ease and positive catalysts gain traction, the latter half of 2025 could see a strong rally—possibly setting the stage for a new crypto bull market.