Benjamin Cowen Reveals Surprising Ethereum Price Patterns Resembling 2019
Ethereum’s Recent Price Action Mirrors 2019 Trends, Says Analyst Benjamin Cowen—But Timing Is Key
Crypto market analyst Benjamin Cowen has drawn attention to Ethereum’s latest price behavior, highlighting a striking resemblance to its past cycle from 2019. While Ethereum recently surged 12% in just 24 hours to reach $1,652, Cowen believes the broader context surrounding the rally is shaped by deeper macroeconomic forces—most notably, the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT) policies initiated by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Parallels to 2019 with a Modern Twist
In his latest analysis, Cowen notes that Ethereum’s current market structure closely echoes its movements in 2019. However, he emphasizes that while the cyclical patterns remain similar, the timing is considerably different. One of the key variables influencing this shift, according to Cowen, is the extended duration of QT policies in the current cycle compared to the past.
During the previous cycle, monetary tightening had already concluded ahead of Ethereum’s halving, which paved the way for a more robust recovery. In contrast, Ethereum now finds itself in a post-halving environment where QT policies are still firmly in place. This divergence, Cowen argues, is delaying Ethereum’s recovery trajectory and injecting greater uncertainty into the market.
“While history doesn’t repeat itself exactly, it often rhymes,” Cowen remarked, suggesting that cyclical analysis remains a valuable lens for interpreting crypto market behavior, even as macroeconomic conditions evolve.
QT’s Dampening Effect on Crypto Sentiment
Quantitative tightening, a policy tool used by central banks to combat inflation, involves reducing the money supply by shrinking balance sheets—primarily through the sale or maturity of government securities. This results in lower liquidity across markets and tends to suppress investor appetite for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
The impact of QT on Ethereum and the broader crypto space cannot be understated. Investor behavior is often closely tied to broader monetary policy, and with the Federal Reserve’s QT stance likely to continue until at least mid-2025—according to minutes from the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting—markets could remain under pressure.
Cowen warns that this persistent contraction in liquidity may lead to a more cautious investment approach from both retail and institutional players. With Ethereum being highly sensitive to investor sentiment and macroeconomic cues, its path forward may be less about technical patterns and more about navigating a challenging monetary landscape.
As Ethereum attempts to sustain its recent gains, all eyes will be on both on-chain metrics and central bank policies. For now, Cowen’s analysis serves as a reminder that history may offer clues—but not certainties—when navigating the volatile world of crypto.